This article is pretty much Francis Fukuyama turned on his head. Like Fukuyama’s “End of History” (and Huntington’s “Clash of Civilizations” for that matter) this broad sweeping historical argument has a sort of superficial intuitive appeal. Whether it holds up to close scrutiny is a different question.
I am not convinced by much of this argument, in particular its treatment of oil as a strategic resource seems quite superficial. Nevertheless, its an interesting alternative viewpoint.
“Climate change to become immediate factor for all strategic, operational and planning decisions ”
Here is an interesting article on how environmental issues are impacting military planning. Environmental issues are not identified as a threat (that is, they are not ‘securitized’), but they are conceptualized as a “threat multiplier” and a complicating factor with wide ranging implications for planning and budgetary decisions. Courtesy of Dr. Brad Walters.