A good overview of the impact of the Syrian Civil War on Lebanon.
Since the fighting first broke out in Syria, the fear has been that it would spread into Lebanon, where Shi’a-Sunni tensions already run very high. despite a few incidents, the country has been able to hold together. The current IS crisis, however, is putting the political system under increasing strain.
Recent polling data shows some interesting patterns:
“ISIS has almost no popular support in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, or Lebanon — even among Sunnis. Among Egyptians, a mere 3 percent express a favorable opinion of ISIS. In Saudi Arabia, the figure is slightly higher: 5 percent rate ISIS positively. In Lebanon, not a single Christian, Shiite, or Druze respondent viewed ISIS favorably; and even among Lebanon’s Sunnis, that figure is almost equally low at 1 percent.”
However, when questioned abut other groups or governments, there was a strong relationship between identity and attitudes. In Lebanon, “Hezbollah, as expected, is rated favorably by 92 percent of Shiites. Among Christians, that figure drops dramatically, yet still hovers near 40 percent. But among Lebanon’s Sunnis, a mere 8 percent have a positive view of Hezbollah.” and “Among the country’s Shiites, both the Iranian and even the Syrian governments enjoy a 96-97 percent approval rating. Conversely, among Lebanon’s Sunnis, Iran gets just 12 percent favorable reviews and Syria just 14 percent. Interestingly, however, Lebanese Christians fall somewhere in the middle on this measure: over a third (37 percent) give Iran at least a “fairly positive” rating, and nearly half (47 percent) say the same about Syria, where Bashar al-Assad’s regime is sometimes viewed as their protector against ISIS and other Islamic extremists.”
A final point: “shared opposition to ISIS does not mean high ratings for the United States. In Egypt and in Saudi Arabia alike, America now has a dismal 12 percent approval number. In Lebanon, that number doubles to 25 percent, but again along a sharply polarized sectarian gradient: from 39 percent among Christians, to 30 percent among Sunnis or Druze, down to a measly 3 percent approval among the plurality Shiite population”