The reports below both focus on how the formation of an anti-ISIS alliance seems to be impacting the balance of power in Syria, putting the Assad government and the ‘moderate’ opposition in a position where compromise may be possible. However, the anti-ISIS alliance is fundamentally unstable, and several of its members (Turkey, Saudi Arabia) are operating on the premise that Assad regime will be the next target after ISIS. It is not clear how they would react to a truce. Moreover, the battle lines in Syria have shifted time and time again. One has to be cautious about drawing too many conclusions about what the short term trends mean.
“While events on the regional diplomatic scene are moving rapidly, there is renewed momentum to draw the outlines of a final endgame in Syria. This momentum is boosted by the imminent historic agreement on Iran’s nuclear program, which if concluded will convince the world that Iran can negotiate in good faith, and the Iranians can become key partners in working out solutions to the region’s other pressing issues, the war on the Islamic State (IS) and the Syrian conflict.”
“The UN mediator in the Syrian conflict, Staffan de Mistura, has told the BBC he believes there is a fresh opportunity to resolve the country’s crisis… Mr de Mistura said that rival sides, namely the moderate rebels and government forces, were starting to question why they were engaged in a conflict that was being taken advantage of by IS and Nusra Front jihadists.”
IR Theory & Practice 