This is an astonishingly good Iran deal -VOX


Iran and the P5+1 have their deal.

-Iran will give up about 14,000 of its 20,000 centrifuges.
-Iran will give up all but its most rudimentary, outdated centrifuges: its first-generation IR-1s, knockoffs of 1970s European models, are all it gets to keep. It will not be allowed to build or develop newer models.
-Iran will give up 97 percent of its enriched uranium; it will hold on to only 300 kilograms of its 10,000-kilogram stockpile in its current form.
-Iran will destroy or export the core of its plutonium plant at Arak, and replace it with a new core that cannot produce weapons-grade plutonium. It will ship out all spent nuclear fuel.

This is a framework agreement so there are still some details to be hammered out. The most important of which is the timing of sanctions relief. This review in VOX is positive, particularly on the issue of inspections. IAEA inspectors will have access to enrichment sites such as Natanz and Fordow as well as centrifuge factories and “all parts of Iran’s nuclear supply chain, including its uranium mines and the mills where it processes uranium ore. Inspectors will also not just monitor but be required to pre-approve all sales to Iran of nuclear-related equipment. This provision also applies to something called “dual-use” materials, which means any equipment that could be used toward a nuclear program..” The deal also includes Iran’s ballistic missile program.

The deal lasts from 10-15 years. Critics will claim that Iran will only be a year away from break-out capability when it ends.This may be true but Iran is only a few months away from that capability now. Military strikes could push them back a few years, but not 10-15. This basic logic is pretty compelling.